Road Maps to Peace

Yesterday I blogged about what I see as one of the two big problems we face: how we deal with the load we're placing on the planet. I think the other big problem is how we deal with disagreements among those of us who live on this planet. As the load we place on the planet increases, I think the importance of figuring out how to get along will increase, too.

Some of you may know of Rick Steves as a travel guide who also writes newspaper columns, produces TV and radio shows, owns a travel agency, and sells travel gear. He also has a more serious purpose in life, or, perhaps, as I've written about Bernie DeKoven and sustainability, his more serious purpose is inherent in what he does in his travel business.

On September 6, he hosted Lord Alderdice in a discussion called Road Maps to Peace. Lord Alderdice played a key role in helping people work to end the "Troubles" in Northern Ireland, and he has continued his work by helping others to reduce conflict in their regions.

Rather than me taking the time to summarize Lord Alderdice's message, listen to him directly. The recording is about an hour long. I encourage you to listen carefully, with an open mind, to the end, for there are many good ideas. Often we hear people expressing opinions (or express them ourselves) about how peoples should get along; Lord Alderdice is talking about what has worked in helping peoples to get along together. I found ideas that I can apply in interpersonal relationships as well as in thinking about larger political issues we help decide at the ballot box or in dialog with our elected officials as well as in working with or inside organizations.

One message he gives (but not the most important—I'll let you listen to find the essence of his ideas) is that we should all listen to news from other parts of the world so that we gain a broader perspective. That's a message I've given here before. I've long thought we should strive to have personal friends and professional contacts in multiple parts of the world, for I suspect we'd be more likely to work things out and less likely to go to war with countries where we have those connections.

As with my previous message, I really would appreciate your comments on these ideas.

The Marblehead Letter

I've written about my musings on growth a number of times, even as I worried that my ideas might be controversial.

Now I've seen the Marblehead Letter, written by executives at a SoL conference in 2001, and I think those of you reading this blog might find it worthy of your time. Read both the full letter—it's only two pages long, and I think it states its questions better—and the summary, which hints at some of the signatories.

Note that the letter has questions, not answers, and note that the letter comes from people high in the ranks of major organizations.

I discovered this letter by reading Presence: An Exploration of Profound Change in People, Organizations, and Society, courtesy of InBubbleWrap and 800ceoread. For various reasons, that's been a hard book for me to get through, but I'm persevering (and those of you who have a copy can tell the page I've reached by this blog posting). Perhaps I'll blog more about it when I finish it.

What do you think? It's comforting to know that others are considering similar questions to the ones I've been raising. Question 3 is exactly what I want to work on, but reading it brings two thoughts:

• You can't address that one question in a vacuum; you have to consider their other questions and still more (for example) in the process. It is a systems issue on multiple levels.
  
• I wonder if they didn't go far enough in question 3. They want to reconceive growth. I wonder if and how and under what conditions overall sustained growth is possible and good for us. If, in aggregate, it is not (and I have yet to see evidence that the systems mantra of "there are always limits to growth" is false), I want to help find a new and successful way forward. While we have to address the long-term situation, I'm more interested in helping us figure out how to make the transition from growth to sustainability, whether on an organizational, societal, or personal level.
  

Those of you acquainted with some of the literature on growth will realize that a stable system doesn't mean there is no growth. For example, in a business sense, some technologies, products, or services outlive their usefulness, and their companies shrink or perhaps go out of business. Other technologies, products, or services are needed in increasing amounts, and their companies grow. Equilibrium in the aggregate doesn't require equilibrium in the details.

While I'm optimistic we'll figure out a way to deal with this, I still think the issue of growth is an integral part of one of the two major problems we face as a people. From what I read, we may well have exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet. If that be true, then these are important times, for the way we respond can likely have a major effect on the response of the systems in which we live, and the recovery of a system from overshoot can be harsh.

I really would welcome your comments on this.

Prediction, system dynamics, and Future-Fusion

Recently, I made the claim that we're better off focusing on adapting to the present than predicting the future. I've made similar claims in the past, too. I've even given one example in which predictions serve a useful purpose.

That's all a bit simplistic, of course. Even system dynamicists could be said to predict the future in a way: we show behavior over time we feel is more likely to occur (although we may warn people away from point predictions based on a behavior over time graph). In other words, I might suggest that your current policies could produce a boom and bust effect in your business, but I wouldn't want you to draw the conclusion that your business will grow another 172.3% by June 15, 2009 before taking a tumble that afternoon.

Because we all would like to know the future, I've experimented with blending system dynamics and Bayesian analysis to quantify the probability of a particular behavior pattern, for example. Of course, that probability is conditioned on both the historical data and the model being correct, which is a loophole big enough for a good-sized locomotive to run through: models are always incorrect. Still, I think this approach may give more useful insight in certain cases.

Now Kshanti Greene of Stottler Henke Assocates, Inc. has shown me a Bayesian tool they've developed called Future-Fusion, and I've been exploring it a bit. They are using Bayesian networks and the power of groups to get a better handle on what the future holds. Much as Data360 looks at the past, Future-Fusion attempts to look at the future. As of this writing, they've created four test areas which you can explore: the 2008 US presidential election, the Iraq war, corporate strategy, and energy. Try it out: learn how to use the system, see current predictions, and add your own (I think you only have to create a free account if you want to add your own predictions). Perhaps you'll learn something, and perhaps they will, too.

Kshanti has pointed out a recent addition to Future-Fusion that may intrigue some of you: time. They've enhanced their technology to allow limited dynamic execution of a network model, which begins to narrow the gap between Bayesian networks and system dynamics from the Bayesian network side, much as what I've tried has narrowed it from the system dynamics side. To try that out, go to the energy model, select a prediction (e.g., "Reduced SUV sales"), click "view graph," note the numbers, and then click "Next Time Step."

I think this is all still experimental in many ways, but it's a good opportunity to learn a bit about this technology by trying it out on real-life issues. I'll be curious what you discover.

It's a new world in business education

I began to notice that last winter, as I taught in the highly-rated Information School at the University of Washington, for they seemed very focused on the intersection of information, technology, and people issues, not just one or the other. I like that; it reminds us that people are closer to the goal than technology and that technology is (or should be) in service to people.

I'm noticing it even more this spring, as I co-teach at the also highly-rated Bainbridge Graduate Institute. BGI, too, is about intersection and synergy—in this case, the intersection of business and sustainability—as they integrate sustainability and business in every course they offer.

You can read more of the details on their Web site; I'll content myself to say it really seems true: people there have made and are making a difference both in business and in sustainability, they have a passion for what they do, and they like to have fun both as part of making a difference and as part of living. Associating with the faculty, the administration, and perhaps especially the students gives me hope for the future.

If you're interested in BGI, there are at least three ways that you can partake. They offer an MBA in Sustainable Business, which may fit some of you quite well. Others of you may find one of their two certificate programs to be more suitable.

This summer, they're starting a third option: a non-credit course called Sustainable Energy Solutions. In these times of seemingly never-ending increases in the price of petroleum and petroleum products, this course may be very timely for some of you.